El Nino could cause 451,000 more heat-related deaths worldwide

Countries in Africa and Southeast Asia could face thousands of additional heat-related deaths in the coming months as a powerful El Nino pattern pushes temperatures higher, researchers have warned.

A study by the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago estimates that El Nino could be linked to about 451,000 extra heat-related deaths worldwide between June and February.

The Sahel could see around 66,800 more deaths than during a normal year. Nigeria is expected to account for almost half of the projected increase in the region.

The researchers also estimate about 19,300 additional deaths in Indonesia. The Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand and Cambodia could together record another 19,400.

India could see around 15,800 extra heat-related deaths, while Brazil could record about 13,300, according to the projection.

El Nino, which was declared in June, is expected to strengthen later this year. The weather pattern adds to the warming caused by human-driven climate change.

The researchers estimate that land temperatures worldwide could be 1.2 degrees Celsius above normal in the coming months. They also expect the number of extremely hot days to be 44 per cent higher than in an average year.

To reach their estimates, the researchers examined the relationship between heat and deaths across 24,378 regions. They also considered differences in local weather conditions and the vulnerability of populations.

The findings were then compared with long-term temperature forecasts and the 1996-2025 average to estimate the additional deaths associated with El Nino.

The researchers said their findings could help governments and humanitarian organisations prepare for extreme heat. Possible measures include issuing heat alerts and setting up cooling centres and hydration stations.

The report comes a day after the United Nations warned that El Nino could pose a serious threat to global health. The research method is due to be published in a peer-reviewed journal.