Mystery trader wins $400,000 after betting on Maduro's downfall

An unkown trader earned around $410,000 by betting that Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro would be removed from office, according to data from the prediction market platform Polymarket.

The account had built positions on contracts linked to Maduro’s ouster, placing wagers that implied long odds. Before the weekend US military operation that captured the Venezuelan leader, the trader’s holdings were valued at roughly $34,000.

Polymarket data shows that the value of these contracts surged after news of the raid broke.

The capture of Maduro coincided with a broader market reaction. Major stock indexes rose, oil prices increased, and energy shares recorded notable gains. Venezuelan government bonds, including those of state oil company PDVSA, jumped as much as 10 cents on the dollar, nearly 30%, amid investor expectations of a complex sovereign debt restructuring.

The anonymous account was created last month. It initially purchased $96 worth of contracts on December 27 that would pay off if the US invaded Venezuela by January 31. Several similar wagers followed in the subsequent days.

Polymarket offers tradable yes-or-no contracts allowing users to bet on a wide range of real-world events, including sports, politics, entertainment, and economic developments.

 Contracts that start at a few cents can pay $1 if they resolve positively, creating opportunities for large profits, particularly for those with access to non-public information.

The platform, which received U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission approval in September after acquiring the licensed derivatives exchange QCEX, has faced scrutiny in the past over potential insider trading. While U.S. users currently cannot access the main platform, some traders bypass restrictions using VPNs.