Proposed creation of 12 provinces may be implemented after 2029 elections

The proposed restructuring of Pakistan into 12 provinces is likely to be implemented after the 2029 general elections, even if the required constitutional amendments are passed next year, sources familiar with the discussions said.

Under the proposal, Punjab could be divided into four provinces, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan into three each, and Sindh into two, increasing the number of provinces from the existing four to 12.

Sources said the constitutional legislation for the proposed restructuring was under consideration for next year. However, the existing provincial governments and assemblies would continue functioning until the next general elections, with the new administrative structure to be implemented afterwards.

The proposal faces several financial, constitutional and administrative challenges, with the distribution of resources under the National Finance Commission (NFC) Award, water-sharing arrangements and settlement of financial liabilities emerging as the key issues.

The creation of eight additional provinces would require a mechanism to redistribute the provincial share of the federal divisible pool among 12 units. It would also raise questions about whether the existing NFC formula, based on factors including population, poverty and revenue generation, should be retained or revised.

Water distribution would be another major challenge, as the 1991 Water Apportionment Accord currently governs the allocation of Indus River resources among the four provinces. Any restructuring would require clarity on how existing allocations would be divided among the proposed successor provinces.

The settlement of outstanding financial obligations, including loans, fiscal claims and federal transfers, would also require an agreed mechanism to distribute assets and liabilities among the new provinces.

Sources said extensive consultations between the federal and provincial governments and other stakeholders would be necessary before the proposed restructuring could be implemented.