Pakistan’s qualification scenario explained after India setback

Pakistan’s chances of reaching the ACC Men’s T20 Asia Cup 2025 final remain alive despite their six-wicket defeat to India in Dubai on Sunday. However, qualification is now uncertain and could ultimately depend on net run rate (NRR).

In the Super Four clash, Pakistan set a target of 171–5, but India chased it down in 18.5 overs. Abhishek Sharma’s 74 off 39 balls and Shubman Gill’s 47 off 28 guided India to victory, giving them an edge in NRR and strengthening their position for a spot in the final.

The result has complicated Pakistan’s path to qualification, leaving several possible scenarios:

Scenario 1: Three-way tie with one win each

If India win all three of their remaining matches and Pakistan defeat Bangladesh but lose to Sri Lanka, then India would qualify outright. Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh would each finish with one win, leaving NRR to determine the second finalist.

Scenario 2: Three teams with two wins each

If Pakistan beat both Sri Lanka and Bangladesh, India defeat Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh upset India, then Pakistan, India, and Bangladesh would finish level on two wins each. NRR would once again decide the two finalists.

Scenario 3: Direct progress with two wins

If Pakistan and India win all their remaining fixtures, both will qualify directly for the final on September 26. India would advance as table toppers with three wins, while Pakistan would secure second place with two victories.

Meanwhile, Bangladesh boosted their chances with a dramatic four-wicket win over Sri Lanka in another Super Four fixture. Chasing 169, they sealed victory with one ball remaining. Saif Hassan (61), Towhid Hridoy (58), and Mustafizur Rahman (3–20) starred for Bangladesh, while Dasun Shanaka’s unbeaten 64 off 37 for Sri Lanka went in vain.

The result has kept the competition open, with upcoming fixtures set to play a decisive role in shaping the final lineup.

Remaining fixtures:

Sept 23: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Abu Dhabi)

Sept 24: India vs Bangladesh (Dubai)

Sept 25: Pakistan vs Bangladesh (Dubai)

Sept 26: India vs Sri Lanka (Dubai)